John Welch: Challenges and Opportunity Ahead for 2026

John Welch, Aspen Group Chief Underwriting Officer, shared his views on the outlook for the 1/1 renewal season during the recent Baden-Baden Reinsurance Meeting.

How would you describe the state of the reinsurance markets over this past year?
The reinsurance markets are fairly well-balanced. There’s potential for profit out there, the business is priced adequately, and so there is abundant opportunity. It was, obviously, a challenging start to the year with the tragic California wildfires, which affected multiple communities, as well as first quarter results for many businesses.

The second quarter was relatively light for catastrophe (CATs), and the third quarter has also been light. Several companies might be running at or below their CAT loss budgets for the year, which is good for profitability, but this may put downward pressure on rates and increase competition going into next year.

What have been your general observations about 1/1 renewals?
Renewals have been fairly disciplined. There is a push on the buyer side to get rate reductions and some concessions on their treaty renewals. In some cases, that’ll be warranted, and the reinsurance industry will support it. We’ve seen rates come down on the short tail lines, for property, marine and some other lines. While concerns about casualty persist, buyers and sellers appear to have reached an agreement on casualty reinsurance.

How will current industry market conditions impact the (re) insurers for 2026?
Every organization is looking to grow, and there’s a lot of capital out there already on the balance sheets. There is considerable interest from third party capital to come in and play a bigger role, and we are seeing increasing competition among reinsurers.

Which sectors do you see offering the best opportunities?
We see opportunities across the board. We’ve been growing nicely, around the world and across most business lines. Part of that is due to the size of the organization and the base from which it starts.

Which sectors have been challenging?
U.S. property has seen rates come off this year, and the industry expects those will be off again next year.

In which geographies do you see growth potential?
There’s a focus on building out geographies that are under-represented at Aspen Re. In particular, Europe and Asia, but there’s room to grow in the U.S. as well.

Do you think rates—and terms and conditions—will continue to hold in the coming year?
There seems to be a lot of discipline around terms and conditions, and retentions in the reinsurance world. Really, the debate is more around price than anything else.

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